16 year Reservist MEB Started...but AF claiming NILOD. Expectations??

5 years AD, 11 years Reserves mostly IMA. I have all of the paperwork showing my back injury is military including military hospital records on 5 week orders...I got regular epidurals which helped up until 2 years ago when I became debilitated and epidurals stopped helping. I had back surgery which didn’t help in 2016.

However, because of new rules not allowing LODs to be filed after so many days after the orders end, the military is claiming EPTS. I had to file for exacerbation after having to drive 5 hours for drills and other orders since it set me back directly after having back surgery. They just came back NILOD and I’ll be appealing. Simultaneously USAFR started the MEB process as my back injury is serious and I am now permanently messed up.

Now USAFR docs are asking questions about my tramadol meds and previous IBS diagnosis. I am 60% disabled vet per VA, 20% for back and 10% for sciatica as a secondary to my back, and have reason to believe will get sleep disturbances as a secondary next week.

Considering my NILOD status, what are my chances of a medical retirement and what other things should I be cautious about during this process??
Thank you.
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